Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 0.048621 0.055252 0.062660 0.071590 0.082111 0.094175 0.109140
2025-12-21 0.036242 0.043810 0.052934 0.064860 0.080206 0.099525 0.126063
2025-12-28 0.030042 0.038354 0.049079 0.064183 0.085312 0.114453 0.158834
2026-01-04 0.025803 0.034632 0.046767 0.065111 0.092956 0.135061 0.206492
2026-01-11 0.022125 0.031054 0.044048 0.065024 0.099437 0.156384 0.264204
2026-01-18 0.019144 0.027988 0.041550 0.064842 0.106027 0.180568 0.338624
2026-01-25 0.016369 0.024791 0.038314 0.062859 0.109337 0.200856 0.417619
2026-02-01 0.013912 0.021721 0.034774 0.059655 0.109784 0.216539 0.497852
2026-02-08 0.012378 0.019941 0.033118 0.059569 0.116541 0.248851 0.642976
2026-02-15 0.011118 0.018442 0.031712 0.059699 0.124052 0.287111 0.839475
2026-02-22 0.010140 0.017300 0.030776 0.060624 0.133941 0.337327 1.129637
2026-03-01 0.009279 0.016250 0.029845 0.061387 0.143982 0.394779 1.525500
2026-03-08 0.008310 0.014885 0.028108 0.060071 0.148724 0.441376 1.961592
2026-03-15 0.007212 0.013126 0.025283 0.055552 0.143119 0.450880 2.236773
2026-03-22 0.006634 0.012338 0.024424 0.055769 0.151992 0.522171 3.060957
2026-03-29 0.006210 0.011810 0.024056 0.057217 0.165731 0.627276 4.481317
2026-04-05 0.005770 0.011192 0.023383 0.057701 0.176773 0.733650 6.403671
2026-04-12 0.005369 0.010608 0.022697 0.058009 0.187673 0.854295 9.237314
2026-04-19 0.004926 0.009877 0.021542 0.056650 0.191734 0.944242 12.395494
2026-04-26 0.004477 0.009081 0.020112 0.054119 0.190034 0.999530 15.572285
2026-05-03 0.004200 0.008653 0.019559 0.054287 0.200485 1.156775 23.289217
2026-05-10 0.003957 0.008275 0.019082 0.054608 0.212152 1.347272 36.145581
2026-05-17 0.003763 0.007991 0.018816 0.055611 0.228123 1.611226 61.224967